Inputs
For each hypothesis: expected impact, uncertainty, test cost, speed, reversibility and current evidence strength.
APIS LAB / Tool
Hypothesis portfolio
Turn loose assumptions into a working portfolio and focus the next cycle on tests that can actually change a decision.
How to read the result
Workspace
Enter the inputs and the model will show both the result and its reliability
The result will appear here.
Check the units, periods and definitions before running the calculation. Weak input data produces weak conclusions.
Method
A tool is useful only when you can see what the conclusion rests on
The interface is only the front layer. The real value is the ability to inspect the inputs, understand how the output is calculated, recognise what the model cannot know and translate the result into a management action.
Calculation method
The model creates a relative research-priority index based on business effect, uncertainty, evidence gap and test efficiency. It then builds a short next-cycle plan.
Limitations
The index is comparative, not a probability of success or financial value. A high score still does not justify a test if the result cannot change the decision.
Management output
A prioritised hypothesis portfolio with an explicit statement of the proof required and a rule for what should happen after the test.
APIS LAB principle
A result is complete not when a chart appears, but when it becomes clear which decision follows, which assumptions remain disputed and what next evidence could change the conclusion.
Method